It's The Message, Stupid

Sponsored by: Patriot Home Funding

Back in 1992, Clinton campaign advisor James Carville came up with the famous campaign slogan for Slick Willie, "It's the economy, stupid." He was right, and Clinton unfortunately won. People vote with their pocketbooks, always have, always will. So let's look inside our pocketbooks and compare Biden's first year in office versus Trump 47's first year in office and see how our pocketbooks are doing.

This morning, the CPI was released for January, showing inflation up .2% month over month and up 2.4% year over year. So, in Trump 47's first year in office the rate of inflation was 2.4%. In Joe Biden's first year in office, from January 2021 to January 2022, inflation increased by 7.5%.

How about wages? In Trump 47's first year real wages grew by 1.25% over the rate of inflation. In Biden's first year real wages fell by 1.4%.

How about groceries? Under Biden in 2021, an increase of 3.8%. Under Trump in 2025, an increase of just 1.4%.

How about gas prices? Under Biden in 2021, gas rose by 24.4%. Under Trump in 2025, gas fell by 5.4%.

How about inbound vs outbound ratios of capital with China? In 2021 under Biden, it was 40.1%. Under Trump in 2025, it was 33.4%, the best number in over 20 years, and don't forget, Trump brought the tariffs charged by China down, too.

How about foreign investment in the US economy and US industry? In 2025 Trump secured more pledges and actual dollars from foreign nations in investment into US industry than Biden did in his entire 4-year term.

In Biden's 4-year term, government employment grew by an astonishing 1.7 million jobs. Under President Trump, it was announced this week that the number of government jobs has reached a 60-year low. Remember, the government cannot pay a new employee without first taking the funds out of the private sector. Under Biden, about two thirds of real GDP growth was the direct result of government spending. Clearly, this had disastrous effects.

Get this: Under Biden the cumulative GDP grew by 12.6%, cumulative inflation grew by 20%, and the federal deficit grew by about $7 trillion. The cost to service that debt, which is now at $38 trillion, increased by about 152%. Wages dropped by 4.9% total, with the average family's costs for "basic goods" rising by an average of $1400.

So, by just about every objective metric, the Trump economy is outperforming the Biden economy, right? Of course it is, the numbers don't lie. It is a rout, not even close. And Trump is positioning our country for sustainable success long term.

But does it feel that way? Does the average person believe it is? There lies the disconnect. Consumer Confidence fell to 12 year lows this month, according to the Conference Board Index. How does that happen?

The democrats and media have been successful in convincing a large swath of Americans that there is a "sentiment schism," meaning that only the "rich" are doing well at the expense of everybody else. The democrats and media have managed to drive a message of "affordability," that is killing the middle and lower classes. Classic wealth envy, a fresh coat of paint on an old democrat staple. The democrats and left wing media have successfully shifted blame for their economic failures to the President who is cleaning up the mess.

They have managed to convince the population that tariffs are inflationary, despite empirical evidence from the Federal Reserve showing that at worst inflation only accounts for 10% of the total inflation number. In other words, they have convinced the American public that a policy which causes at worst .24% inflation, or a quarter on every $10 you spend, is causing Americans economic pain and not the 20% inflation that they dropped on all of our heads. Pretty unbelievable, huh?

Democrats are blaming Trump for their mess, and Republicans are blaming Trump for not entirely cleaning it up fast enough. It is quite the paradox. It all boils down to messaging. The administration and the GOP have a huge messaging issue and they better get it fixed in the next 7 months before early voting starts.

What Trump has done is weed the economic garden, till the land, plant the crops, and is waiting for them to grow. The policies and actions are sound. Now if the Federal Reserve would just give them a little fertilizer in the form of interest rate cuts, like about 1.5%, the garden will bloom and there will be a horn of plenty for all.

The messaging problem is real, and it needs to get fixed. It needs to be a whole of party approach, or else all the good work that has been done will be for naught and we will be right back where we started 2 years ago. That would be like giving an 18-year-old boy who had gotten drunk and totaled your car a bottle of whiskey and the keys to your new car. In other words, dangerous, stupid, and perhaps deadly.

So, the question I pose to you today is- Was Carville right when he said it is about the economy? Or is it really the messaging? That's the biggest question, and issue, facing the GOP on the Hill and the administration as we enter election season 2026. It is the Rorschach test of our time- the actual economy on one hand versus the perception of the economy on the other. And how will the American people see it when they vote?

So, to rip off James Carville, "It's the message,stupid."