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Writer's picturePierce Outlaw

Long for BS

Sponsored by: Patriot Home Funding






This morning, we got the monthly non-farm payroll numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS for short, which is long for BS for the past 3 years.


Non-farm payrolls only rose by only 12,000 jobs in October, the worst monthly performance since COVID. The private sector LOST 28,000 jobs, which means that government hiring rose by 40,000 jobs. To put it another way that even a Harris voter can understand, the government produced more jobs in October than all components of the private sector combined. Remember, every dollar that the government spends, it must first take from the private sector or create out of thin air, which reduces growth, opportunity, innovation, and upward mobility.


The August and blockbuster September report- which in my opinion was politically tainted to coincide with the start of early voting- were revised downward by a combined 112,000 jobs.  

On the American Adversaries Radio Show, we always look inside the numbers to give you the real story, so let's look inside the numbers of this report.


Factory and manufacturing jobs FELL by 46,000, which continued its now 24-year trend of contraction. When George W. Bush took office in 2001, there were over twice as many manufacturing jobs than healthcare. When Biden took office, there were still more manufacturing jobs than health care. Now, there are more healthcare jobs by about 10,000 and that gap is widening every month.


Why is this important? Because health care jobs are created and sustained in large part by government spending, and since Obamacare was passed, the curve of manufacturing job losses has steepened dramatically while healthcare jobs have risen steadily. Healthcare jobs rose by 51,000 this month, so when you factor in the fact that a large part of that number is government spending, combined with the number of government jobs of 40,000, you see that the rest of the private sector actually lost 79,000 jobs in October. 


That is a dire number and is indicative of a recession. but that's not all.  The BLS conducts two surveys simultaneously, the business, or establishment survey, which is the report that we have been discussing, and the household survey, where they interview regular citizens, like you and me. The household survey was far worse than the establishment survey, showing a loss of 368,000 jobs, and another 428,000 left the work force completely, which lowered the labor force participation rate. Over 1 million people have left the work force this year and those jobs have not been replaced. Even part time jobs, which have been rising steadily because of economic weakness, dropped by 281,000 jobs as employers are obviously tightening their belts, according to the household survey.


So, we can draw a couple of very obvious conclusions from the numbers. 


Number 1, Government spending under Biden and Harris, which caused the aggregate 20+ % inflation that has been a tax on us all, and especially the middle class and poor, has kept the economic numbers afloat and masked the real damage of Biden and Harris' fiscal policy. But with a $1.8 budget deficit which is 6% of GDP, we are literally floating our economy on credit and printed money- with still rising interest rates. The $1T of credit card debt, which is continually increasing, is further proof. 


Number 2, This situation portends an economic doom loop, which will, if it hasn't already in truth, result in stagflation, where inflation increases and growth stalls or decreases, and the deficit increases exponentially, which will increase interest rates, further debase the currency, and erode your savings, spending power, wealth, and opportunity. 

 

So, the obvious question is if these numbers are so bad, why is the stock market booming? Great question. Given the weakness in the economy, plus the instability in the Baltics and Middle East, normally capital would be flowing from all four corners of the world into the bond market- US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in particular- in a flight to safety and flight to quality trade, which would result in lower interest rates, which in turn stimulates the economy resulting in a self-correction of sorts. 


However, with this administration's fiscal policy, plus our ballooning deficit which will mean even more issuance of bonds to finance the deficit at higher rates, the market is sending a clear signal that it trusts private business more than it trusts the US Government, and who can blame them? Almost absurdly, the flight to quality trade is into the supposedly riskier assets of stocks versus the guaranteed assets of US Treasuries- but remember, inflation erodes the value of bonds, so is it really guaranteed with Biden and Harris running the show? 


It looks like the market is fighting the fed, right? Actually, the markets are sending the federal reserve and the federal government a very clear message, which is to clean up your act, reduce spending, lower the deficit, stop printing money, cut marginal tax rates, ease regulation, and unleash our energy sector. It is also telling us that, sadly, interest rates are too low. And remember, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors meets next week and will probably cut rates again by .25%, which will further roil the bond market and boost equities.


Under Trump, inflation increased at an average of 1.9%, during Biden and Harris' term, inflation has increased by an average of 6.1%.

 

Under Trump, real wages adjusted for inflation grew by 7.1% over the life of his term, under Biden and Harris, real wages have fell by 1.7%. 


By the way, that increase in real wages under Trump is the highest increase among the last 9 presidents spanning back to the 1960's, which is most of your lifetimes.


In 4 days, we have a chance to course correct, to vote for policies that will put our economy back on solid footing, to reinstate the American Dream for future generations, to restore some sense of stability and order to our lives. So turn off your TV, unplug from the matrix, and listen to the markets and your wallet, not the cable news channels and main stream propaganda media. This is our moment. Let's not let the American Dream die because of ignorance, greed, mismanagement, and misplaced emotion. Ask yourself why our government is intentionally doing this to us, why we are letting them, and then cast the smart vote to stop it. Vote plus, baby!


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